A Rematch.
Some of you may be thinking déjà vu. Don’t worry, while it might seem that way, there are some significant differences between this year’s Super Bowl contestants from two years ago. In 2023, the Eagles featured defensive studs Fletcher Cox and Haason Reddick along with an all-star coaching staff. Shane Steichen served as the offensive coordinator while Jonathan Gannon led the defense. Both coaches moved on after Super Bowl LVII.
The Chiefs have not changed as much. Super Bowl LVII started the Chiefs rotating door of wide receivers. Many of the rookies they started in that Super Bowl remain on the roster as significant contributors. https://jjsportsfan.com/second-super-bowl-win-in-4-years/
The Eagles roster has significantly changed. They feature a young talented defense returning only Josh Sweat, Darius Slay and CJ Gardner Johnson as starters. Jordan Davis, Milton Williams and Reed Blankenship were reserve players who have now graduated to starting roles, while the ancient Brandon Graham remains on the roster as a rotational pass rusher. The offense remains largely intact with changes only to the offensive line and running back room. While the team misses Jason Kelce, the addition of Saquon Barkley energizes the team.
The Eagles Strengths.
The Eagles are vastly improved. They, like the Chiefs have found a way to reload their roster quickly. Vic Fangio is one of the best and most experienced defensive coordinators in the league. His front-line starting roster in both his base and nickel defense is the best in the NFC. They play fundamentally well and can get a significant pass rush with just four defenders. The team tackles well as a whole. They are rarely fooled by as exemplified by how well they play the screen.
On offense the Eagles feature the best running back in football this year. Saquon is quick, powerful and fast. He sheds blocks and runs thru would-be tacklers. One of the more underrated attributes about Barkley is his excellent blocking skills. Multiple times he battered defenders in the NFC championship as he led block for Jalen Hurts.
The Eagles offensive roster is stacked. They feature two number one receivers, a true number one tight end, and a highly talented and experienced quarterback. They are multiple on offense. While they can ground and pound, they can also light it up thru the air. They can score on an explosive run or pass play or take your defense the distance on a fifteen-play drive. Finally, their kickoff and kick return teams are outstanding.
The Eagles Weaknesses.
The Eagles do not feature many issues. However, due to the youth of their defense, most of their weaknesses actually start there. Philadelphia lacks depth at the linebacker position. Oren Burks has been pressed into service in place of Nakobe Dean. While Burks rallies well to the tackle and is a serviceable blitzer, his coverage skills are wanting. Due to their issues at linebacker, they are highly susceptible to exploitation by tight ends, as evidenced by Zach Ertz’s big day against them in the NFC championship.
Fangio loves to call man coverage. Nickelback Dejean Cooper and corner back Quinyon Mitchell are rookies. While they have acquitted themselves well this year, they will be susceptible to the Chiefs well-oiled multiple passing attack. The Eagles constant use of man coverage makes them vulnerable to crossing routes, deep over routes, slants, delayed slants and the disguised pick play. The Chiefs offense is skilled at all these routes.
Finally, though the Eagles feature explosive skill position players, their offensive line is beat and battered. They lack depth at the position. Because of this, they will need to score early and fast. As the Super Bowl drags on, their offensive line could wear down against the Chief’s constant rotation at defensive line.
The Chiefs Strengths and Weaknesses.
The Kansas City Chiefs feature very few problems. However, they do have three issues that they have contended with all year long. First, they lack a true number one wide receiver. The benefit of a true number one is Patrick Mahomes would have the benefit of always finding this receiver when the chips are down. Second, their offensive line holds…a lot. If flagged, this will put the Chiefs offense off schedule. Further, their offensive line isn’t the best at run blocking, leaving the running backs to manufacture yards. Lastly, the Chiefs defensive line is not built to stop the run. They can be exploited by a talented running back and an excellent running scheme.
The Chiefs strengths lie in coaching, their quarterback and their overall Super Bowl experience. The core of this squad has played in four Super Bowls, winning three of them. As the saying goes, you can’t buy experience. This team just wins.
The Chiefs win because they have excellent coaching. Andy Reid is the most experienced offensive play caller in football today. He will scheme the Eagles up. He will know how to exploit the Eagles offense. Though the Chiefs lack a true number one wide receiver, this weakness can be turned to an advantage. The Eagles defense will have to pick their poison on who to concentrate their defense on.
JuJu Smith-Schuster showed he can still be a significant contributor. Hollywood Brown still has the jets to concern the Eagles coverage. If the Eagles choose to try and take Xavier Worthy out of the game, they will still have to contend with the rest of the receiving corps including Travis Kelce.
Who are the X Factors?
The obvious X-factor for the Chiefs is Patrick Mahomes. He is the ultimate eraser. If he has the ball at the end of the game, the Chiefs win. The Eagles obvious X-factor is Saquon Barkley. He has shown he will not be denied. He is dangerous out of the backfield and is a willing blocker in the quarterback run game.
Don’t sleep on Jalen Hurts though. He will be an X-factor in the run game as well. He can hurt you with his arm but is arguably more deadly in the run game, especially with Saquon Barkley in the backfield. Look for him to stress the Chiefs defense with his legs.
The final X-factor is Steve Spagnuolo. While he has his hands full planning for this experienced dynamic Eagles offense, he is the most experienced super bowl winning defensive coordinator in football. He will have a plan. His defense will be ready. He will save a blitz or coverage for the right moment and spring it on the Eagles when they least expect it.
The Preview.
This game will likely come down to who makes the least mistakes or rather, who forces the most mistakes. Which team has the grit to take it the distance? The Chiefs have the experience. The Eagles have the youth. As we consider match ups, watch how Kelce and Worthy exploit the Eagles linebackers. Observe how Saquon and Hurts exploit the Chiefs defensive line. Who will when? It’s hard to say, but I pick the Chiefs 42 to 38.
