Grab your cowboy hats and loosen those belt buckles, Dolphins fans, because Miami is headed to Houston to take on the Texans at NRG Stadium this Sunday. This game has all the makings of a spicy showdown—Texas-style—with Miami looking to keep their playoff hunt alive and Houston hoping their sophomore season quarterback CJ Stroud can rope in another big win.
Coming off the heels of an exciting overtime win over their hated division rival New York Jets, Miami needs to stack wins if they want to continue to have a prayer of catching the Denver Broncos for that final wildcard playoff spot. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder and many Dolfans were disappointed by the fact that the Dolphins needed extra football to dispatch the lowly 3-win Jets. However, I look at it from a different perspective.
Rivalry games often don’t follow the prognostications on paper and the Jets came in with a solid game plan that almost garnered them the victory. I give them credit. It’s the NFL, you can be beaten by anyone on any given Sunday. I also don’t have great expectations for the Dolphins this season, so I am just watching and enjoying the games. The Jets have not beaten Miami in Miami in a decade and I love that for us. Tua and the team were hellbent on keeping that win streak alive and Malik Washington ran over the kicker on a brilliant 48-yard kick return to set up Jason Sanders for the field goal to force overtime. Once the Dolphins won the toss I knew the game was over. Tua and Jonnu were locked in. Also, prior to Sunday’s defeat, Aaron Rodgers was undefeated in Miami, I am glad the Dolphins were finally able to give him that loss on his resume before he retires. With that said, the Jets win is behind us and we are on to Houston.
CJ Stroud: The Sophomore Sheriff in Town
Let’s start with the Texans’ gunslinger, CJ Stroud. This guy has been playing like a seasoned vet, slinging passes with the kind of confidence that makes you wonder if he even knows he’s a sophomore. Stroud already set records and defenses ablaze in his inaugural season, and if you blink, he’ll find his favorite target, Tank Dell, in the end zone before you can say “Tex-Mex.” His heat has cooled off a bit from his rookie season but he is still a very dangerous triggerman.
The Dolphins’ defense will need to step up, but they’ve been about as consistent as Houston weather. One minute they’re stonewalling offenses and tracking as a top 10 unit in all defensive categories, the next they’re giving up big plays like Oprah handing out cars. They look old. Their coverage has been leaky as of late. Even Aaron Rodgers and the Jets had a renaissance this past week at Hard Rock Stadium. Without Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips, the pass rush is more “mild salsa” than “extra spicy,” so Miami will need savvy vets like Zach Sieler and Calais Campbell to play like their hair is on fire to keep Stroud in check. Chop Robinson will have his hands full trying to challenge elite tackle and former Dolphin Laremy Tunsil. Chop sometimes moves around but I have a feeling he will stay on the left side of the defensive line on Sunday to avoid Tunsil.
Tua and Tyreek
On the flip side, Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill are rolling into Houston with a highlight reel that could rival any primetime action flick. Hill, aka “The Cheetah,” finally had a 100 yard game for the first time since week one against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Tyreek outran Gang Green defenders last week like they were one of his baby mama’s that owed him money. Tua? Well, he’s been dropping dimes like he’s got a pocket full of spare change. This season has been a bit of a change for Tua as the big downfield plays that we have grown accustomed to seeing have not been there but Tua has become very efficient with the quick pass game and finding his tight end Jonnu Smith. Houston’s secondary might want to stretch before this one because chasing Hill and Jaylen Waddle around NRG Stadium could cause a few pulled hamstrings.
The Run Game: Yeehaw or Meh?
Miami’s rushing attack, led by Devon Achane, has been a rollercoaster. Earlier in the season when they had no passing attack in Tua’s absence, they trampled defenses like a stampede of cattle, now they run game looks more lost than tourists do looking for parking on South Beach. If the Texans’ defensive line holds strong, it could force Tua to air it out even more—which, let’s be honest, is kind of Miami’s vibe anyway. Tua Tagovailoa is the first quarterback in NFL history with three consecutive games where he has had 40 drop back attempts, multiple touchdown passes, and no interceptions. Talk about high level efficiency.
Meanwhile, Houston’s run game has been… well, let’s just say it’s still finding its spurs. If Miami’s defense can contain their ground attack, it’ll put the pressure squarely on Stroud’s shoulders. This is where Miami could gain the advantage and extend their outside chances of making the playoffs.
The Real MVP: Houston BBQ
Let’s not overlook the most important matchup here: Miami fans vs. Houston BBQ. While the Dolphins are duking it out on the field, their fans in attendance will have to resist the siren call of brisket, ribs, and enough sides to make the NRG concessions a culinary minefield. Word of advice: pace yourselves. No one wants to see someone in a Tyreek jersey passed out from a BBQ coma in the third quarter. The Dolfan base travels well and the team will need to feel the support because this game will be a serious challenge on the field.
A Texas-Sized Win?
This game has all the ingredients for a shootout: a red-hot sophomore quarterback, a Dolphins offense that can drive faster than you can shout “Fins Up,” and defenses that might need a map to track the opposing receivers. Expect fireworks, touchdowns, and maybe a few moments where you question your life choices as a Dolphins fan.
Final prediction: Dolphins 34, Texans 27. Tua and Tyreek will have another big day, CJ Stroud will make a few rookie mistakes under pressure, and Miami will leave Houston with a win—and maybe a to-go box of celebratory brisket for the flight home.
